Yesterday in Maitama, a good friend of mine was intimating me on the power struggle and cold war brewing in the APC between the Tinubu led ACN and some nPDP led by Saraki and from what he said, it may snowball into serious cracks.
The power struggle is for the Senate Presidency. Nigerians may wish to know why Tinubu wants to influence the choice at all cost. The game for 2019 has commenced since all available indications point to the fact that Buhari would not seek a second term.
There are four blocs in APC, which are the Tinubu led ACN, Buhari led CPC, ANPP, nPDP and one strong person in Atiku. Of the 4 + 1 blocs, only 2 currently control things. Tinubu and Buhari hold sway. The exit of Sherif crippled the ANPP, there is no unity in nPDP because Kwankwaso has a separate agenda.
From his analysis, Tinubu is plotting to prevent Saraki from using the position of Senate President and the power of the National Assembly to build a cohesive national platform for 2019. Tinubu wants Tambuwal for President in 2019, while the Buhari group prefer El-rufai. Saraki, Atiku, Kwankwaso are all interested in becoming the president of Nigeria by 2019 as well.
At the moment, the CPC faction of the APC have the President, ACN has the Vice President, ANPP is rumoured to have been allocated the slot of SGF, nothing juicy for nPDP and Atiku yet. Saraki is therefore using Senate President as bargain for nPDP.
Tinubu got advantage of reciprocity against Buhari for 2019 or fight 1 enemy. It would be difficult for Buhari to fight 2 camps if Saraki gets the Senate Presidency. Tinubu’s reported withdrawal of interest in Akume for Ahmed Lawan is part of the all-cost desperation to deny Saraki of the Senate Presidency.
Meanwhile, Saraki has the backing of Amaech’s financial war chest as well as that of the nPDP except Kwankwaso and Wamakko who are not committed. Definitely all about interest. Tinubu’s support for Lawan may include a bargain for Deputy Senate President for his wife, meaning the South West may not get the Speakership of the House of Assembly. Tinubu the sharp man.
While all these are going on, the PDP who are now the minority in the Senate can help to install Saraki to spite Tinubu and make APC 2019 projection very clumsy. With 42 Senators under PDP out of 109 Senate seats in the next Assembly, PDP will determine the next Senate President.
The option of Lawan if all the APC Senators were to buy it, makes the faint hope and thought of David Mark’s return non-existence. But then, anything is possible in politics and I would be watching with keen interest on June 6 to see who get elected as the new Senate President.
With the way the cold war is going, Tinubu has elected to be a spoiler than to be the king maker. His reasoning is simple. Deny me my choice, I deny you SenatePresident.
God Bless Nigeria.